Cool! The future looks really cool!

The future is really shaping up. Consumer’s now have access to hardware that previously was affordable only by the enterprise data center or by serious gaming people (who seem to be able to afford much more than the average computer user).

♦ 4-core systems with 3GB of memory and 1 TB of disk are now priced at just over $1,000. Apple and Dell have both announced 8-core consumer systems. They are still pricey, but that will change during 2008 as competition increases.

♦ Standard 3.5 inch form-factor hard disks using PMR (perpendicular magnetic recording technology) are now providing 1 TB (7200 RPM) capacity under $300 (the combination of several other developing technologies are estimated to provide 50 TB 3.5 inch hard disks by 2013 [read here]). And, using SATA Raid technology (standard on most mother boards) these 1 TB disks can be combined to provide fault-tolerant large-volume storage.

♦ Gigabit networks in the home are commonplace and businesses are adopting gigabit as old infrastructure is upgraded. While 1Gbit is available today, 10 Gbit is rapidly approaching. And bandwidth to your home (last mile) is increasing as cable and fiber are deployed in even small communities.

♦ Consumer-grade NAS (Network Attached Storage) that allows multiple 1 TB disks to be used in Raid configurations provides new, fault tolerant, shared storage, options to the consumer and small business. I have a D-Link DNS-323 in my basement which provides shared storage to all my home computers — wireless and wired. While the 323 was harder to set up than I would have liked, it runs just fine. I helped my daughter-in-law put one in her elementary school (she is a 4th grade teacher) and they use it to share curriculum materials without a problem (they call it “The Magic Box” — “the agenda for next week’s meeting is on the magic box.”).

Now, consider that Intel has said that they will have an 80-core chipset “in five years” (four years left — I’m counting). I’m thinking we can expect 16-core consumer systems by that time. Memory is so cheap now that the 16-core systems can have enough memory to really fly. Instead of systems having a boat-load of disk, I’d guess that they will have a reasonable amount of disk and that NAS boxes will become easier to use and will be the way that photos, etc. are stored and shared. And, with faster networks (10 Gbit by then) we will get to that content fast.

But, what will the average consumer do with 16 cores? I asked one of our product managers that question and he replied, “Play Halo?” Well, Halo might consume four cores, but that leaves 12 cores still wondering what they should be doing. And, will the average consumer really know how to manage SMP (do you know what SMP is? I know that no one in my neighborhood does, nor would they know what to do with 16 cores)? They just expect their system to run, and they want it to run fast. We need to insulate users from complexity while still allowing new technology to make their life better, more secure, and more private.

Well, I have some ideas on this and will explore them in a future post